Income dynamics in dual labor markets
In many labor markets, long-term jobs coexist with short-term, fixed-duration contracts. While some workers enjoy stable lifetime employment, others encounter labor market instability, often transitioning through multiple short-term jobs and experiencing periods of non-employment. This paper investigates how this duality affects individual income volatility and to what extent labor market instability stems from contract types or workers’ characteristics. I propose a statistical framework that models log-income as the sum of a persistent Markov component and a transitory innovation. Both evolve non-linearly over time, systematically varying with labor market status and transitions. In the model, observable and latent individual characteristics shape both labor market selection and income dynamics. The findings highlight that labor market status and transitions significantly influence income volatility, and that latent characteristics are key drivers of labor market heterogeneity. The paper further explores the impact of employment instability and income volatility on wealth accumulation, revealing substantial welfare costs driven by increased precautionary savings among workers more exposed to labor market instability.